The usability and efficiency of the D-MOSS system in the Central Highlands from September 2020 to March 2021

Abstract

D-MOSS (Dengue forecasting Model Satellite-based System) is an early dengue fever epidemic forecasting model developed based on 20-years dengue cases and earth observation data from the satellite. This study aims to evaluated the usability and efficiency of the D-MOSS system in the Central Highlands from September 2020 to March 2021 showed that the forecasting model was good and useful. Applied the D-MOSS model to predict dengue fever cases 6 months in advance at the provincial level, the result showed correlation coefficient r = 1 between the Average number of forecasted cases at the 75th percentile and the average of the recorded number of cases. The correlation coefficient r ranged from 0.80 to 0.98 among provinces. The average difference was about ± 25% in months with a large number of cases. Months with a low number of cases The average difference was ± 20 cases. The model has been predicted accurately the seasonal trend of dengue fever. However, during the 6 months of evaluating the forecast results, Kon Tum had a high number of cases that different from the cyclical rule of dengue fever, the forecasting model is not accurate (large error between cases). This is a reference model for developing dengue outbreak prevention and response plans for the provincial level.