The impact of temperature factor on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Khanh Hoa province during 2007 – 2021

Abstract

A retrospective descriptive study was conducted to describe the impact of temperature (Average air temperature (AAT), average maximum air temperature (AMaxT), average minimum air temperature (AMinT)) on the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in Khanh Hoa province from January 2007 to December 2021. Monthly data were collected and analyzed using a negative binomial regression model with the average temperature over a lag period of 3 months. The results showed that there was a statistically significant positive correlation between AAT, or a statistically significant negative correlation between AMaxT, AMinT and the relative risk of DHF. With a 1oC increase in AAT, the number of DHF increased by 4791.09% (95% CI: 2479.03 ÷ 9175.86, p < 0.001). For 1oC increase in AMaxT, the number of DHF decreased by -36.24% (95% CI: -58.10 ÷ -2.95, p = 0.036). With a 1 oC increase in AMinT, the number of DHF decreased by -94.97% (95% CI: -96.86 ÷ -91.95, p < 0.001). The study found that the environmental temperatures, specifically AAT, AMaxT and AMinT, contributed to the impact on the number of DHF cases in Khanh Hoa province. Monthly temperature data can be valuable in the assessment and prevention of DHF.