Assessment of forecast results of the dengue model forcasting based satellite system (DMOSS) in Dong Nai 2020 - 2021

Abstract

Dengue forcasting Model Satellite - based System for Vietnam (DMOSS) is the first dengue warning system that integrates monitoring data from satellites and weather data to provide early warnings. On the web platform, DMOSS can predict dengue outbreaks up to six months in advance. The study aims to assess the validity of forecast results of the Dengue model forcasting based satellite system (DMOSS) in Dong Nai 2020 - 2021. The research team analyzed the actual cases collected from routine surveillance system and compare to 4 prediction methods of DMOSS (forecast at 95% percentile, forecast at 75% percentile, forecasting average threshold + 1 standard deviation, forecasting average threshold + 2 standard deviation). The results showed that DMOSS forecasting results at 95% percentile and the 75% percentile were precise.From January 2021 to April 2021, results from DMOSS at 95% percentile and the 75% percentile were more accurate. Forcasting results from DMOSS should be used in Dengue risk assesment in order to drive response and prevention activities in Dong Nai province.