Featibility and forecast accuracy of dengue forecasting Model Satellite based System (D-Moss) in Khanh Hoa province, 2020 – 2021

Abstract

From 7/2019, Viet Nam is piloting the D-MOSS dengue forecasting system, which uses information on environmental conditions from satellites, and is helping to forecast in advance the possibility of likely dengue outbreaks, to better plan and prepare an effective response. Our cross-sectional study amimed to evaluate the featibility and forecast accuracy of D-MOSS in Khanh Hoa province, 2020 - 2021. The results indicated that D-MOSS has highly feasible. In general, D-MOSS gives accurate forecast results compared to dengue case in reality. The dengue forecast average of D-MOSS have a strong positive correlation with the actual number of cases. The mean + 1 standard deviation threshold has a higher predictive accuracy than the mean + 2 standard deviations threshold, the 75th percentile and the 95th percentile. The D-MOSS forecast period one month in advance has the highest accuracy, especially in July and August. The farther the forecast period, the lower the accuracy. It is necessary to update D-MOSSS forecast for disstrict levels and continue to assess the accuracy of the D-MOSS in Khanh Hoa, to propose applying D-MOSS in dengue prevention and control in Vietnam.