Featibility and forecast accuracy of dengue forecasting Model Satellite based System (D-Moss) in Khanh Hoa province, 2020 – 2021

Authors

  • Nguyễn Thành Đông Pasteur Institute in Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa
  • Trịnh Công Thức Pasteur Institute in Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa
  • Nguyễn Xuân Hiếu Pasteur Institute in Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa
  • Lê Xuân Huy Pasteur Insititute in Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa
  • Đỗ Thái Hùng Pasteur Institute in Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa
  • Huỳnh Văn Dõng Khanh Hoa Center for Diease Control, Khanh Hoa
  • Nguyễn Hữu Tài Khanh Hoa Center for Diease Control, Khanh Hoa
  • Trần Đại Quang Vietnam Ministry of Health, Hanoi
  • Trần Công Đại WHO country office in Vietnam, Hanoi
  • Vũ Sinh Nam National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51403/0868-2836/2022/616

Keywords:

Dengue forecast, D-MOSS, Khanh Hoa

Abstract

From 7/2019, Viet Nam is piloting the D-MOSS dengue forecasting system, which uses information on environmental conditions from satellites, and is helping to forecast in advance the possibility of likely dengue outbreaks, to better plan and prepare an effective response. Our cross-sectional study amimed to evaluate the featibility and forecast accuracy of D-MOSS in Khanh Hoa province, 2020 - 2021. The results indicated that D-MOSS has highly feasible. In general, D-MOSS gives accurate forecast results compared to dengue case in reality. The dengue forecast average of D-MOSS have a strong positive correlation with the actual number of cases. The mean + 1 standard deviation threshold has a higher predictive accuracy than the mean + 2 standard deviations threshold, the 75th percentile and the 95th percentile. The D-MOSS forecast period one month in advance has the highest accuracy, especially in July and August. The farther the forecast period, the lower the accuracy. It is necessary to update D-MOSSS forecast for disstrict levels and continue to assess the accuracy of the D-MOSS in Khanh Hoa, to propose applying D-MOSS in dengue prevention and control in Vietnam.

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Published

24-05-2022

How to Cite

Đông, N. T. ., Thức, T. C. ., Hiếu, N. X. ., Huy, L. X. ., Hùng, Đỗ T. ., Dõng, H. V. ., Tài, N. H. ., Quang, T. Đại ., Đại, T. C. ., & Nam, V. S. . (2022). Featibility and forecast accuracy of dengue forecasting Model Satellite based System (D-Moss) in Khanh Hoa province, 2020 – 2021. Vietnam Journal of Preventive Medicine, 32(2 Phụ bản), 115–128. https://doi.org/10.51403/0868-2836/2022/616

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