Validity of dengue forecasting based on DMOSS in the South of Vietnam

Abstract

A model for Dengue forecasting (DMOSS: Dengue forecasting Model Satellite - based System for Vietnam) was developed in order to drive interventions and prevention of Dengue. DMOSS was developed based on retrospective data of Dengue and hydro - meteorology from 2000 to 2020. Objectives of this study was described the validity of forecasting result in order to recommend the use of DMOSS in reality. Probabilities of Dengue epidemics were varied by 9% after each updates, the maximum fluctuation was 58%. When examination of the fluctuations of Dengue epidemics probabilities by every updates, the change of 11% was recorded after each updates. PPV and FN rates of Dengue epidemics probability in 60% level were 25% and 76% and in 80% level were 29% and 85%. Dengue epidemic probabilities of DMOSS must be used carefully in regard to intervention activities, Dengue serotypes circulation and magnitude of susceptible population.