VJPM
Page: 96
Volume 28, Issue 3(201) 2018
The relationship between El Niño Southern oscillation and measles cases in Northern Vietnam
Author: Vu Hai Ha, Pham Van Khang, Ngu Duy Nghia, Tran Manh Tung, Pham Quang Thai and Tran Nhu Duong
Summary:
Climate change is one of the current challenges for human, which influences on many aspects such as life, production and environment. There is a concern for improving disease burdens in the context of changing climate. To understand this at a local level, we explored the effect of Niño 3.4 index on the number of measles cases in the North of Vietnam. Monthly data from 2007 to 2017 were analysed by time-series regression using negative binomial models. The results showed that there was significant association between number of measles cases and Niño 3.4 index at lag of 3 months or the average over lag periods of 0–3 months. The pattern shows the positive effect of low Niño index, the negative effect of high Niño index. This finding confirms that the climatic factor influenced in the occurrence of measles disease. It might bring new perception to the control of infectious diseases in the context of climate change currently in Vietnam
Keywords:
measles, climate factor, ENSO, Niño 3.4, Vietnam
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13. Pham Van Khang.pdf
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